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Monday, June 24, 2024

SVB, GPT, and the social sector


In the event you’ve been studying the information you already know that Silicon Valley Financial institution (SVB), a financial institution that closely caters to VC companies and begin ups, collapsed and its depositors are being saved by the US Treasury. You realize that hearings are being known as for in Congress and the identical outdated battle strains between the rich (individuals and establishments) and everybody else have been re-animated. And you’ll infer that there was (and is) an entire lot of backroom-ing occurring.

You additionally know that SVB had a number of cash in accounts held by nonprofit organizations, together with inexpensive housing organizations. 

You additionally know that Open AI, the as soon as not-for-profit-now-for-profit analysis group has launched GPT 4, a big language mannequin (LLM) replace to its beforehand (as in three months in the past) launched GPT 3. You’ve heard about generative AI, learn tales about how “nasty,” “smutty” or “simply bizarre” the outputs of the GPT fashions are, and you will have even “performed” with or labored with these fashions. On mastodon I discovered a thread of nonprofit workers sharing tales of how they’re utilizing ChatGPT to expedite the funder-driven time-suck of slicing the 1000 phrase description of your applications and their world altering results required by Funder A right into a 300 phrase description for Funder B. 

And also you’ve most likely seen, maybe learn, perhaps skimmed the quite a few articles and considerable analysis on how the LLMs are biased and the outputs are “hallucinations,’ (sure that’s what they’re known as). As for SVB, you will have seen tales or tweets or weblog posts about how the collapse of SVB will result in an instantaneous funding catastrophe for all Bay Space nonprofits.

I wish to posit two issues. First, leaping to insights or conclusions proper now in regards to the results of both the financial institution collapse or generative AI makes for good Twitter (if there’s any such factor anymore), however isn’t actuality. It’s punditry, lobbying, or gross sales. Second, take into consideration the intersections between this stuff – rising tech techniques, company hype, price of residing, want for and function of nonprofits, threat administration in banking, threat denial in companies, threat and duty of governments, philanthropic product decisions by rich people (DAFs, LLCs, non-public foundations, neighborhood foundations) and, lastly, the overlap between these classes when it comes to precise variety of individuals concerned. 

It’s too quickly to know the way this stuff will play out at a sector degree. These on the skin of SVB and/or OpenAI don’t know as a lot as we predict we all know. We don’t know all of the methods they intersect. The perfect anybody may be doing proper now’s 1) discovering out if they’ve publicity to SVB or Credit score Suisse, both straight or by their funders (true for startups and nonprofits and mitigate appropriately on the organizational degree; and test by yourself financial institution, given potential for ripple results of particular person financial institution issues; 2) Put in your hype-goggles, convene your nonprofit’s knowledge governance assessment committee (What? You don’t have one?) and begin pondering now about who generative AI helps, what it does effectively and the place it’s harmful, if and the way it aligns with the mission of your group (The mission – not the event or advertising and marketing departments’ metrics, however the precise mission), the place (inside what software program you employ) are algorithms already at work, and what knowledge (on whom) you’d be feeding to a third-party company (comparable to OpenAI) should you begin utilizing it and what meaning on your constituents. 

These two issues – a financial institution collapse and new expertise – ARE prone to have BIG societal impacts. However understanding them will take time. And their impacts will not unfold alongside “straight strains” from A to B. There will probably be every kind of extra “developments,” intersections and interactions between impacts, and mitigations and responses. Do not fall for the fast evaluation – it’s all working on incomplete data.*

Similar to the climate in California, judging from the winter we’ve had, forecasters (armed with precise meteorological and longitudinal knowledge) are noting that we’re in for a lengthy, unusual Spring. That’s about all we will guess is coming from these two latest occasions. Unusual occasions forward. Maintain your goggles on.

 

 *Talking of incomplete data, Time Journal is working a narrative describing how among the greatest names in Efficient Altruism knew in regards to the monetary shenanigans of their most well-known, duplicitous member, Sam Bankman-Fried. But, they have been nonetheless “shocked and dismayed” when his crypto-empire turned out to be constructed on fraud.

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