Happiness could also be reshaping America’s political panorama.
Because the Nineteen Sixties and the election of President John F. Kennedy, youthful voters have supported Democratic candidates, whereas older voters leaned Republican. However that dynamic has been evolving, and now, in 2024, massive numbers in each teams are bucking conventional assumptions about their political affiliation.
This shift challenges the age-old political adage that youthful idealism offers strategy to conservative pragmatism with age. As pollsters and pundits scramble to clarify the phenomenon, one intriguing idea emerges: It might come right down to happiness.
The sad vote for change
I’m an interpersonal communication researcher and the co-founder and co-director of the Florida Atlantic College Mainstreet Political Communication Lab. Our lab investigates and analyzes public opinion and political traits nationwide. With the upcoming election, I’ve been particularly inspecting the potential affect of happiness on voting patterns.
Analysis worldwide signifies that blissful individuals want protecting issues the identical, and so they are likely to vote for the incumbent in political elections. Voters who aren’t as blissful are extra open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the federal government as a supply of their discontent.
These findings might assist to clarify the Democratic Occasion’s waning assist amongst younger individuals.
This group remains to be reliably blue. Vice President Kamala Harris has an edge amongst voters underneath 30, with 50% favoring her over former President Donald Trump’s 34%. U.S. voters ages 18 to 35 primarily want Democratic views on points like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. But they’re extra prone to vote Republican than they’ve been up to now, particularly younger males.
Youth are not carefree
Declining life satisfaction and happiness ranges amongst younger People might assist to clarify their altering political preferences.
Our March 2024 ballot discovered that 55% of respondents ages 18 to 34 reported dissatisfaction with their lives, in contrast with 65% of the final inhabitants.
These findings, in addition to different nationwide polls, problem the widespread perception that younger maturity is considered one of life’s happiest durations.
Happiness has historically been seen as a U-shaped curve, with the youngest and oldest voters reporting best ranges of happiness. Younger adults worldwide reported being carefree and blissful, having fun with their newfound independence and alternatives. Older of us, in the meantime, had been lastly previous the stresses of juggling work, household and relationships, and starting to take pleasure in retirement.
At the moment’s younger People are unhappier than previous generations. That’s true worldwide, in keeping with the 2024 World Happiness Report, however the drop is especially drastic within the U.S., the place suicide charges amongst younger individuals rose over 60% between 2007 and 2021.
Specialists attribute the unhappiness of younger People as we speak to myriad components, together with a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic enhance in faculty shootings and rising prices of residing. Younger individuals are additionally burdened by political polarization, mistrust within the media and two wars raging overseas, in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.
Social media exacerbates these anxieties, encouraging younger individuals to match themselves with others in unhealthy methods and exposing them to a number of destructive information, which may make actuality appear worse than it’s.
All these happiness-dampening considerations could also be shaping political preferences. Some sad younger voters are drawn to candidates who promise financial stability and progress. Different younger adults, sad with the political system, need radical change — any change.
Seniors for Harris
The altering political preferences of sad younger People are notably revealing compared with these of older People, who’ve been getting happier in recent times.
Current polling knowledge means that older voters, lengthy a Republican base, are trending blue in 2024. As of September 2024, Harris leads amongst older voters, with someplace between 51% to 55% favoring her over Trump.
These blissful seniors look like involved about sweeping adjustments that might happen underneath one other Trump administration, like ending much more abortion rights. The Supreme Courtroom’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 erased what was seen as a serious milestone and accomplishment for that technology.
Older People are additionally centered on retaining Social Safety advantages, a Democratic precedence that Trump has wavered on, and sustaining decrease prescription drug prices. Each of those applications assist hold older People blissful and wholesome. They barely register for younger individuals.
Polls are notoriously slippery, and so they’ll hold altering. However, more and more, age is not an excellent indicator of celebration affiliation.
Happiness issues on the poll field
I’m not suggesting that happiness drives all voting conduct or explains altering political preferences in america. However I’m saying that it shouldn’t be ignored.
My analysis signifies that to grasp why individuals vote the way in which they do, it’s important to look at happiness alongside different key components just like the financial system and private experiences. By learning how happiness connects with age, life experiences and engagement with social media, researchers can acquire clearer insights into the altering voting conduct of each younger and previous voters.
The 2024 presidential candidates appear to have intuited this. The Harris marketing campaign is all about “pleasure” and celebrating happiness and neighborhood. The Trump marketing campaign adopts an angrier tone and a grievance-filled method.
In the end, happiness is greater than only a temper. Simply as a lot as ideology, the literal pursuit of happiness could also be shaping selections on the poll field.
This text by Carol Bishop Mills, from Florida Atlantic College, was initially printed by The Dialog.
